Blue Jays: Three or more pitchers throw 200+ innings for them.
Mark Buehrle is averaging 6.6 innings per start, RA Dickey 6.2, and Drew Hutchinson 5.8. Both Buehrle (for the fourteenth straight year!) and Dickey are on pace to throw 200+ innings, but Hutchinson is going to need to pick it up. This one is a likely bust.
Orioles: Tommy Hunter is a top-five closer in the AL.
Hunter has blown four saves and has an unspectacular 3.98 ERA. By any measure, he has not been a top-5 closer. Bust.
Rays: Evan Longoria finally plays a full season with a .900+ OPS.
Longoria is hitting .257/.333/.386/.719, easily his worst season to date. It would take a Bonds-like second half for this one to be accurate. Very likely bust.
Red Sox: Grady Sizemore plays at least 81 games.
Can it still count if he isn’t on the Red Sox anymore? Sizemore appeared in 52 games for Boston before being released in mid-June. He has since played three more games with the Phillies and could conceivably get to 81 this year. Wait and see.
Yankees: The infield (C not included) will hit more total home runs than the outfield.
With Mark Teixeira coming off wrist surgery and no other power threats in the infield, that crew was not expected to hit very many home runs. Instead, Teixiera (19) has almost as many as the entire outfield combined (23) and the infield has far outpaced the outfield thus far. On track.
Indians: Justin Masterson doesn’t have the lowest ERA among starters.
Masterson has been terrible in 2014; his ERA is currently 5.51. Cory Kluber, Josh Tomlin, and Trevor Bauer all have far better ERAs than that. On track.
Royals: Both Hosmer and Moustakas exceed an .800 OPS.
We could have set this at .700 and still been wrong. Hosmer is hitting .268/.315/.382/.697 and Moustakas is hitting an even worse .192/.257/.371/.627. Without a very strong second half for both of them, this is a bust.
Tigers: Max Scherzer is better than he was in 2013, but he doesn’t win more than 15 games.
Scherzer’s ERA is currently 3.35, compared to last year’s 2.90, but that’s mostly due to him allowing more hits this year. However, he’s already won eleven games for a very good Tigers team. This is a prediction to keep an eye on in the second half, but it’s looking like a likely bust in both aspects.
Twins: For the second year in a row, no Twins starter strikes out 8 or more in one game.
This has actually happened five times already this year; Phil Hughes did it three times, and Kyle Gibson and Ricky Nolasco once each. Only the Orioles and Rockies (three each) have fewer games where the starter has struck out 8+. Yu Darvish and Felix Hernandez have done it 12 times each by themselves. Bust.
White Sox: Adam Dunn bats over .240.
Adam Dunn is currently hitting .224. This is a very likely bust.
Angels: Mike Trout has more runs scored than strikeouts.
Trout has 65 runs scored and 95 strikeouts. Trout is capable of anything, but this is a likely bust.
Astros: They have more than one All-Star.
The Astros’ only All-Star is the very deserving Jose Altuve. Starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel was one of the final vote candidates, though. Bust.
Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes hits 40 home runs, with an OBP under .325.
Cespedes has a .299 OBP, but he also only has 14 homers. He’s not getting to 40. Likely bust.
Mariners: Robinson Cano doesn’t hit .300, hit 30 homers, or drive in 100.
Cano is hitting .334, so this is going to be a bust, but his power outage has been one of the stranger things to happen this season, especially considering he’s having an overall very strong year; through 91 games played, he has hit just seven home runs. He also has 57 RBIs and will probably not get to 100. Likely bust.
Rangers: Prince Fielder has a lower OPS+ than last year.
This prediction was made in light of Fielder’s move from Comerica Park to the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington. However, Fielder played only 42 underwhelming games before undergoing season-ending surgery. In those 42 games, his OPS+ was just 100 compared to last year’s 121, so this prediction is a success.
Braves: Despite losing half the staff to Tommy John surgery, their starters still finish top-5 in the NL in ERA.
Atlanta’s starters have a 3.42 ERA, good for fifth in the NL (behind the Dodgers, Nats, Reds, and Cardinals). The sixth-place Padres are at 3.50, so that’s something to watch, but so far, so good.
Marlins: Jose Fernandez leads the NL in wins.
Fernandez, who had Tommy John surgery on May 16, will not lead the NL in wins. Bust.
Mets: Matt Harvey wins at least two games.
We doubt Matt Harvey makes an appearance at all this year, but for now: wait and see.
Nationals: Strasburg strikes out 250.
Strasburg leads the NL in strikeouts with 149 in 125 innings. At that rate, he would need to throw 210 innings to strike out 250. Wait and see.
Phillies: Ben Revere hits a home run.
Brewers: Ryan Braun has his best season by OPS+.
Braun has a 136 OPS+, which is very good. However, he has quite a while to go to beat his 166 OPS+ from 2011. Likely bust.
Cardinals: Matt Carpenter wins the batting title.
Carpenter is hitting .283, and trails Troy Tulowitzki by 62 points. Matt Carpenter will not win the batting title this year. Bust.
Cubs: Jeff Samardzija remains a Cub all year.
Pirates: The Pirates win no more than 85 games.
The Pirates are 49-46, currently on pace to win 84 games. It’s worth noting, though, that after a bad April and a mediocre May, they’ve been playing better. Wait and see.
Reds: Billy Hamilton doesn’t steal 50 bases.
Hamilton has already stolen 38 bases. If he stays on the field, he will steal 50+. Likely bust.
Diamondbacks: Bronson Arroyo gives up more home runs than Mark Trumbo hits.
Arroyo allowed 10 homers before getting hurt and Trumbo hit seven homers before getting hurt, but Arroyo isn’t coming back and Trumbo just returned. This is a likely bust.
Dodgers: Matt Kemp leads their position players in WAR.
Kemp is hitting .269/.330/.430, for a 114 OPS+ – a far cry from his glory days, but still respectable. However, WAR has hammered him over his defense, leaving him with -1.2, which is not only the worst on the Dodgers, but the second worst in the entire National League. This is a bust.
Giants: Their team ERA+ is over 100.
A note on AT&T Park: The Giants have a 3.40 team ERA, good for 5th in the NL, but their ERA+ is only 101. Park factors have long been very harsh on Giants pitchers (and friendly to Giants hitters)–for comparison’s sake, Josh Wasdin had a 101 ERA+ for the 2000 Rockies. His ERA was 5.80. Stay tuned.
Padres: Huston Street gives up more home runs than at least one regular starter.
Street has allowed three home runs this year. Anibal Sanchez has allowed only three home runs; Adam Wainwright and Garrett Richards have allowed four; and Felix Hernandez and Chris Archer have allowed five. Unlikely, but wait and see.
Rockies: Michael Cuddyer bats .330 or better again.
Cuddyer has only played in 31 games this year, where he’s batted .317. This prediction is probably unlikely, but still possible. Wait and see.