You Can't Predict Baseball

Alfredo Aceves pitched 5 innings of 1-run ball.
- Aceves had an 8.66 ERA when he got sent down in April. Since then, he has allowed three runs in 18 innings (1.50 ERA).
– Aceves has beaten the Rays twice in a week.
— Koji Uehara walked a guy.
—- In the second game, Felix Doubront threw 8 shutout innings.
—– It took Andrew Bailey two pitches to blow the save, allowing a homer to Kelly Johnson.
—— It took Joel Peralta six pitches to lose the game, walking Nava on five and surrendering a walkoff homer to Jonny Gomes.
——- Jose Iglesias watch: did not play game 1, 1-3 in game 2. 18-game hitting streak, .435/.480/.554 on the year.

Baltimore won a Britton vs. Verlander matchup.
- Verlander has a 3.72 ERA.

The Mets swept a doubleheader.
- In Atlanta.
– In the first game, Matt Harvey struck out 12 through six no-hit innings, at one point striking out six in a row.
— That run of six straight strikeouts did not include the opposing pitcher.
—- Harvey lost the no-hitter when no one covered the bag on a slow roller near first. Harvey even tossed the ball to an empty bag.
—– The Mets held on to give Matt Harvey a win.
—— In his big league debut, Zack Wheeler walked five, but allowed no runs.
——- Anthony Recker homered.

Cody Ransom and Ryan Sweeney hit back-to-back home runs.
- Off Adam Wainwright.
– The Cubs beat the Cardinals.

Jeff Kobernus, owner of 10 home runs in 1468 minor league PAs, hit a home run off Cliff Lee.
- Ryan Howard triple.
– Stand-up triple, too.

Ervin Santana has a 2.64 ERA.

The Pirates handed Mat Latos his first loss of the year.
- Pittsburgh is 13 games over .500.
– Russell Martin stole a base.

Adam Dunn put the ball in play three times.
- Mike Pelfrey allowed 10 hits in six innings, but the Twins won anyway.
– Dylan Axelrod also allowed 10 hits in six innings.

The Astros won 10-1.

Justin Smoak homered.
- Joe Blanton struck out a season-high 11 in just 6.2 innings.
– He was outpitched by Jeremy Bonderman.

Chris Getz and Jeff Francoeur were intentionally walked on back-to-back days. (h/t @alhiggins11 and @arobtweets)
- Getz was IBBed today, and it was actually his third IBB of the season.
– The Royals are .500.
— The Nats are not.

Chad Tracy, hitting .141/.179/.234, homered off Jonathan Papelbon, who has a 1.46 ERA and excellent peripherals. Papelbon blew the save against the offensively weak Nationals.
- The Phillies won anyway.

Michael Young triple.

Miguel Cabrera hit a ball right at Manny Machado, who threw the ball perfectly – and Cabrera still got an infield single.

Brandon Crawford is batting third tonight.
- He’s hitting a very solid .287/.351/.426.

Jorge De La Rosa threw seven innings of shutout baseball, allowing only one hit.
- It’s only the eighth such game in Rockies history.
– The Rockies lost.
— The Blue Jays have won six straight, which they haven’t done in over two years.

Chien Ming Wang pitched seven shutout innings today, earning his first win in over a year.
– The win came as the Blue Jays swept the Rangers in Arlington in a four game series.
— The Blue Jays outscored the Rangers in the series 24-4.

The Marlins, owners of the worst record in baseball, won a series against the Cardinals who have the best record in the league.
– They still, however, have fewer wins (21) than Chris Davis has home runs (23).
— Placido Polanco went 3-4. He is now hitting .237/.297/.270 on the season.
—- Via @junkstats, the Marlins won their first home series against a non-Mets team since September 2012 against the Reds.

The Yankees took a 6-0 lead into the ninth inning in Anaheim today.
– Mariano Rivera relieved David Robertson after the latter had surrendered a run, leaving with the bases loaded.
— After Erick Aybar hit an RBI groundout, Alberto Callaspo hit a two-run single, turning what had been a 6-0 game into a 6-4 game, with two outs.
—- The Angels scored another run, shortening the Yankees’ lead to just one run, and then loaded the bases for Albert Pujols.
—– Pujols struck out.
—— So in other words, Rivera inherited bases loaded, allows all of them to score along with a baserunner of his own, but still gets a save.

Johnny Cueto successfully executed a suicide squeeze in his first PA off the DL.

This play happened in the Mets game. (For the link-phobic, there were three errant throws on the same play).
– The Mets still won.
—They won because Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit a three-run home run in the bottom of the ninth.

Via @espnstatsinfo, the Red Sox were 16-1 in Jon Lester’s first 17 starts against the Orioles. They’ve now lost his last 5 starts against them.

The Padres are over .500 for the first time since April 7, 2011.
– They join three of the other four NL West teams in being above the .500 mark.
— The Dodgers are not one of those other teams.

Henry Blanco hit a grand slam.
- His last grand slam was 13 years and 34 days ago.
– That is the fifth-longest gap between grand slams since 1900.
— This was Blanco’s first hit as a Mariner.
—- Also, a team walked Michael Saunders intentionally to set this grand slam up.

Cubs/Mets featured a moment where the Cubs had the bases loaded with nobody out, a ball fell in front of the center fielder, and the Cubs scored no runs while the Mets only got one out.
- Then again, Mets and Cubs.
– Kevin Gregg has a 0.83 ERA and 0.969 WHIP.

David Ortiz tripled.
- That’s his second triple of the season.
– Jose Iglesias watch: 1-3, BB, K. .447/.495/.576.
— Manny Machado picked up his 31st double before Father’s Day.

Erick Aybar homered.
- Chris Stewart stole a base.
– These things happened in the same game.

Newly installed closer Kenley Jansen blew the save. Brandon League then got a save later in the game.

The Astros won.
- They only struck out seven times.
– The game ended when Jordan Danks, the tying run, got picked off second base.
— Jason Castro, he of the career .317 OPS – yes, OPS – against lefties, homered against lefty John Danks. (h/t @bhavinforapples)

Anibal Sanchez walked more batters than he struck out.
- The Twins collected sixteen hits.

Lance Lynn gave up seven runs in just five innings to the offensively inept Marlins.
- And got a win.
– Seven runs allowed is the most allowed by a winning NL pitcher this season.
— Lynn is now 9-1 despite a good but not great 3.56 ERA.

The Nats got a game tying 8th inning homer out of Chad Tracy.
- Tracy was a 20-HR guy once upon a time, but this year he was hitting .131/.172/.180. His OPS+ was -2.
– They then got the go-ahead homer in the 9th from Anthony Rendon, the first of his career.

The Rangers have been shut out three times in 31 home games so far this year.
- They were not shut out at home all last year.
– They also have 10 or fewer hits in 13 straight games, which is their longest since a 15-game streak in 1988. (h/t @aandro)
— Tonight it was Toronto who shut them out.

On the other hand, the Royals beat up on a Rays starter again.
- Tonight it was Matt Moore, who gave up five runs in 5.1 innings.
– Three starts ago his ERA was 2.18. Now it’s 4.12.
— Kansas City has yet to allow four runs in a game in June.

The Marlins beat the Cardinals.
- Chad Qualls has a 2.81 ERA.

Chris Sale: 8 IP, 5 H, 2 R/0 ER, 1 BB, 14 K.
- Now, this isn’t particularly unpredictable from a great starter. What’s unpredictable is that he lost.
– To the Astros.
— Erik Bedard and his 5.34 ERA threw six innings of one-run ball against the White Sox.
—- This was the eighth time the Astros have struck out 14 times in a game, and the second time (Darvish) a single starter has done it to them.

Manny Machado has 30 doubles.
- Jose Iglesias watch: 2-4, single and a double. .451/.495/.585. 91 plate appearances now.

The Pirates shut out the Dodgers.
- They now lead all MLB with 11 shutouts.
– The Dodgers are ten games under .500.
— Jeff Locke singled, just the second hit of his career.

Carlos Marmol pitched a 1-2-3 inning.
- The Mets are 2-0 when Marcum faces the Braves. They are 0-8 when he faces anyone else.

Bronson Arroyo allowed 12 hits, the second-most of any pitcher this year.
- He pitched with a lead into the 8th, when Martin Maldonado tied it.

Gregor Blanco homered.
- Alex Wood balked in a run.

Heading into today’s games, via @junkstats, this month, the Brewers have hit 14 triples and the entire American League had hit 16 triples.
—Also heading into today’s games, the Royals, Padres, and Pirates were all closer to first place in their division than the Nationals are in theirs.

The Yankees and Athletics played 18 innings today.
– The Yankees left 11 men on base in extra innings alone.
— Travis Hafner, Kevin Youkilis, and Vernon Wells combined to go 0-23.
—- Adam Warren entered the game in the 11th and proceeded to pitch six shutout innings—the equivalent of a quality start.
—– The Athletics won a walk-off single in the bottom of the 18th with Mariano Rivera on the mound for the Yankees. Prior to this season, Rivera had pitched in 1,147 career games and had just two appearances where he did not record an out. Today made it twice in 27 games this season (h/t @ktsharp).
—— In 2013 we are already up to 14 games of fourteen or more innings; in all of 2012 there were just 20 (via @dschoenfield.
——- Nate Freiman became the first opposing player to beat the Yankees with a walk-off hit in the 18th inning or later since Ira Flagstead of the Red Sox did it in 1927 (via @espnstatsinfo.

On the one-year anniversary of his perfect game, Matt Cain pitched 6.2 innings of two-hit shutout baseball.

At one point, the Twins had two runs and just three hits and were beating the Phillies, who had just one run on 13 hits. The Phillies did end up winning, but by a score of 3-2 despite 16 hits.

Clete Thomas had four hits tonight.

Shelby Miller set his career high in runs allowed.
- Against the Mets.
– He did this in the first 3.1 innings of the game.

Barry Zito’s ERA on the road is 11.28. At home it’s 1.94.
- The Giants only have three players with 100+ PAs and an OPS+ under 110. They are Gregor Blanco, Angel Pagan, and Andres Torres, and they’re at 97, 99, and 103 respectively.
– Meanwhile, the highest ERA+ in their rotation is 96. (That’s Madison Bumgarner’s 3.58 ERA. Bring back steroids.) Cain is at 68 and Lincecum 73.
— The Giants actually roughed up Francisco Liriano today, scoring four runs off him in just six innings, but Liriano still got the win.

Kansas City has hit homers in back to back games.
- This time, it was a two-out, two-run, game-tying homer by Lorenzo Cain off an 0-2 pitch from Valverde.
– Justin Verlander got a no-decision, just his second of the year.
— Kansas City has won 7 of 8.

Edinson Volquez came into the game with a 6.33 ERA and allowed 4+ runs in 8 of his 13 starts.
- Tonight, he allowed one run over seven innings while striking out nine.
– The Padres swept the Braves.
— Justin Upton homered, his first since May 17th, nearly 100 plate appearances ago. He had a .491 OPS from then until tonight.

Alfredo Aceves allowed one run over six innings.
- Against the Rays, whose offense has been very good of late.

Mike Pelfrey struck out 7.
- Once again, this tied Minnesota’s season high by a starter. Every other team has had at least two starts of 8+ strikeouts. Detroit had their 24th tonight.

Ross Ohlendorf had an ERA of nearly 8 over the last two seasons.
- He made his 2013 debut tonight. In Coors Field.
– Six innings, one run. Just two hits.

Bartolo Colon walked two batters in one inning.
- Before that inning, he’d walked only six batters all year.
– The game’s still going, but he’s up to four walks allowed in it.

Jon Lester walked four batters in the first inning and seven for the game, tying his career high.
- In a Lester/Roberto Hernandez matchup, the Rays won handily.
– Hernandez allowed just three runs in seven innings.
— Desmond Jennings homered twice.
—- The Rays homered four times in back-to-back games for the first time ever.
—– Jose Iglesias watch: 2-4, two singles. .449/.494/.577.

Gerrit Cole threw 6.1 effective innings in his big league debut. He also singled in two runs in his first at bat.
- Via @JamesSantelli, that was Cole’s first hit since high school. He was 0-6 in the minors and never hit in college or Spring Training.
– Despite hitting 99 a few times, he only struck out two batters. One was the first batter of the game. The other was Buster Posey.
— Pedro Alvarez hit two singles in a game.

The Reds pitcher, Tony Cingriani, reached base three times.
- Twice on bunt singles.

The Orioles had three straight infield hits.
- Mike Trout already has eight home runs against the Orioles in his career.

The Marlins won.
- They beat a team that wasn’t the Mets.
– Yuni Betancourt tripled.
— Chad Qualls has as many wins as Cole Hamels.
—- Derek Dietrich has six home runs.

The Royals hit a homer.
- It was David Lough.
– That’s the first homer by a Royals lefty in over a month. (h/t @jazayerli)
— Wade Davis allowed just two runs in 6.2 innings against the Tigers. Detroit won anyway.

Lance Berkman bunt single.

Chien-Ming Wang allowed five runs in 7.1 innings in his return to the majors.
- Toronto won anyway.
– Down to their final strike, Jose Bautista homered to tie it.
— The Jays scored the winning run on a wild pitch.

Ryan Howard tied the game with a hit off a lefty reliever.
- The Phillies lost anyway.
– They are now 2-13 in Cole Hamels’ starts.

Omar Quintanilla homered.
- Seriously, remember when the Mets swept the Yankees?

Aaron Harang came into the day with a 6.70 ERA, and allowed six runs in just 2.1 innings his last time out.
- He threw a 2-hit shutout.
– That’s his second shutout in his last four starts.
— His ERA is down to 5.60.

Jose Bautista hit an opposite-field home run.

Adam Dunn hit an infield single.
– He hit the single in a game that was later delayed by fog.
— Adam Dunn had his sixth multi-hit game in 58 games this season…
—-Yasiel Puig has six in eight games.

Via @espnstatsinfo, Alex Cobb allowed six runs in the first inning of tonight’s Rays/Red Sox game. He had allowed just seven runs in his previous five starts combined.
– Three teams have starters who have already had 18 games giving up five or more runs; one is the Astros…and the other two are the Giants and Rays. (h/t @dannyknoblercbs).
— Cobb left the game with a no-decision; a Rays comeback forced the game into extra innings.
—- Fernando Rodney, the Rays’ closer, threw 33 pitches.
—– After falling behind by two in the top of the tenth, Jose Lobaton opened the bottom half with a homer, and then Tampa loaded the bases with no one out.
—— Bailey promptly walked in the tying run, bringing up Evan Longoria, still with no one out.
——- Longoria hit into a double play, and Boston escaped.
——– Via @redsoxstats, at one point in the 10th inning the Red Sox had a win expectancy of 93.5% and at another point the Rays had a win expectancy of 93.1%.

Salvador Perez hit a triple.
– It’s actually his second triple of 2013.

The Mets and Marlins went into extras again.
- This time the game only lasted ten innings.
– They’re the first team to play a 20+ inning game followed by a 10+ inning game since 1989.
— They scored the go-ahead run when a relatively routine grounder clanged off Daniel Murphy’s glove. They added another on a sac fly and two more on a home run from Miguel Olivo.
—- For the second weekend in a row, the Mets were swept by the Marlins.
—– Since May 21st, every Marlins win has come against the Mets. They now have 8 wins against the Mets and 10 against everyone else.

The Yankees took three of four from the Mariners, during a series where they faced Felix Hernandez.
- They won the game Felix started. The one they lost was Kuroda vs. Bonderman.
– Chris Stewart bunted for a hit against Felix.
– He also drove in the winning run.

Matt Moore gave up eight runs in just five innings to the Orioles, a day after they were shut out.
- On May 31, Matt Moore’s ERA was 2.18.
– In two starts since, his ERA has climbed all the way up to 3.78.
— Brian Matusz came in holding lefties to a .406 OPS. Sam Fuld took him deep.
—- It was Fuld’s first homer in more than two years, and just the fifth of his career. It was his first homer off a lefty since his first big league homer back in 2009.
—– Alexi Casilla got caught stealing.

Juan Nicasio had a perfect game through five innings, and a 4-0 lead.
- But going into the bottom of the ninth, the Padres had flipped things around very quickly and led the Rockies by a 7-4 margin.
– The Rockies ended up winning.
— Cameron Maybin and Mark Kotsay homered in this one, too. First of the year for both of them.

The Nationals and their surprisingly weak offense won a game where their starter gave up four runs in just three innings.
- It was their first comeback from being down three runs all season.

Joe Blanton is 1-10.
- Jose Iglesias watch: 2-4, single and a double. .446/.494/.581.

Adam Lind is hitting .340/.419/.536.

A Houston pitcher tossed seven innings of two-hit shutout ball.
- Of course, they lost anyway.

Milwaukee won.
- Kyle Lohse allowed three hits and no runs in the first inning.
– The Phillies didn’t get another hit until the eighth.
— Scooter Gennett had a big bases-clearing triple for the Brewers.
—- Also, Martin Maldonado homered off Papelbon.

Jose Alvarez made his big league debut for the Tigers.
- He didn’t allow a hit until two outs in the fifth.
– The first hit was a game-tying homer to former Tiger Ryan Raburn.
— Tigers starters, as a whole, have a 9.8 K/9.
—- Twins’ starters are at 4.4 K/9.
—– That’s 418 strikeouts compared to only 161.
—— No Twins starter has more than 36 strikeouts. There are eight players with no starts and more than 36 strikeouts.
——- Craig Kimbrel is not one of them.